Will Bitcoin price crash to $20,000? Peter Schiff makes big prediction if Nasdaq enters bear market phase
Regarding Bitcoin's potential decline, Schiff observed that with the Nasdaq already showing a 12% decrease, further market corrections could severely affect Bitcoin prices. He stated on X (formerly Twitter), "If the Nasdaq is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K."
Schiff spoke of previous market crashes, noting substantial Nasdaq declines: "After the Dot-com bubble burst, it fell nearly 80%. During the 2008 financial crisis, it declined 55%, and in the 2020 COVID crash, it dropped about 30%." He suggests that a 40% index decline could push Bitcoin towards or below $20,000.
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Despite Bitcoin's current positive performance, driven by spot Bitcoin ETF investments and increased mainstream acceptance, Schiff contends that a stock market downturn could trigger widespread selling, affecting Bitcoin prices. "A drop of that magnitude would accelerate Bitcoin's collapse to much lower levels," he cautioned.
Schiff highlighted gold's inverse relationship with the Nasdaq, stating, "Since the Nasdaq peaked on December 16, 2023, gold is up 13%, almost a perfect 1-to-1 inverse correlation." He anticipates gold potentially exceeding $3,800 per ounce if stocks decline and the dollar weakens.
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Below is the full text of Peter Schiff’s post on X:
The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K.But if the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history shows that the decline will be much larger. Following the bursting of the Dot-com bubble, it fell almost 80%. During the 2008 GFC, it fell 55%, and during the COVID crash in 2020, it fell about 30%. The average of those three bear markets is a 55% decline. If this bear market bottoms with just a 40% decline, that would put Bitcoin at about $20K. However, my bet would be that a drop of that magnitude would accelerate Bitcoin's collapse to much lower levels.On the other hand, the correlation between the NASDAQ and gold has been negative. Since the NASDAQ peaked on Dec. 16th, 2023, gold is up 13%, almost a perfect 1-to-1 correlation. So, if that correlation holds too, a 40% drop in the NASDAQ would put gold over $3,800. However, my guess is that if a bear market in stocks coincides with a significant decline in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, gold will rise much higher.But even at $3,800 gold and $20K Bitcoin, in terms of gold, Bitcoin will be down over 85%. Given that such a divergence will likely end the pretense that Bitcoin is a store of value similar to gold, there will clearly be no justification for the U.S. government or any state government to keep any Bitcoin in a Strategic Reserve. There will also be no reason for ETF investors to keep holding their positions either. With all that selling, it will be impossible for $MSTR to sell enough Bitcoin to avoid bankruptcy.(Disclaimer: Recommendations are views given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Elon Musk-led DOGE or the Department of Government Efficiency has deactivated in excess of 200,000 credit cards associated with various US federal agencies! Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, is also an advisor to US President Donald Trump. This action followed an audit that identified these credit cards as either unused or surplus to requirements. So how does this unprecedented move by the Musk-led department mean? Why has DOGE chosen to undertake an audit of 4.6 million credit cards and accounts? How does it impact federal workers? We take a look:
DOGE shared the progress on social media, highlighting their ongoing efforts to eliminate governmental inefficiency and mismanagement. The post said: "Weekly Credit Card Update! Pilot program with 16 agencies to audit unused/unneeded credit cards. After 3 weeks, >200,000 cards have been de-activated. Great progress this past week by @HHSGov [U.S. Department of Health and Human Services] @Interior [U.S. Department of the Interior]."
Musk-led DOGE has also noted that approximately 4.6 million credit cards and accounts were active when the audit commenced, indicating that additional review and action would be necessary. (AP Photo)
DOGE's credit card deactivation stems from a collaborative effort with federal agencies, announced on February 18, under the guidance of Elon Musk. The initiative aims to optimize credit card account management and decrease operational expenses. (AP Photo)
Statistics reveal that the federal government oversaw 4.6 million credit cards, handling 90 million distinct transactions in the 2024 fiscal year.
US President Donald Trump responded by issuing an executive order for a "transformation in Federal spending", mandating a 30-day suspension of agency employee credit cards. (AP Photo)
The suspension affects multiple federal entities, including the Department of Homeland Security, Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), NASA, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Department of Commerce, Department of the Treasury, Department of the Interior, Department of Education, Small Business Administration (SBA), Department of Labor, Office of Personnel Management (OPM), General Services Administration (GSA), Social Security Administration, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. (AP Photo)
DOGE has initiated transparency measures by providing regular updates about its operations. DOGE reported that these 4.6 million government credit cards accounted for £40 billion in expenditure in the previous year. (AP Photo)
DOGE has additionally reduced numerous federal employees' credit card limits to $1, resulting in staff complaints about their inability to perform job functions. Fortune reports that federal employees depend on these cards for purchasing necessary work-related supplies and services, as they are not permitted to use personal credit cards for official expenses. (AP Photo)
DOGE move impact: The suspension and deactivation of government credit cards might disrupt and slow down federal agencies' daily functions, as experts cautioned—whilst the advantages remain uncertain, according to NewsWeek. (AP Photo)
DOGE, established through executive order on January 20 and headed by Elon Musk, the world's richest individual, seeks to reduce federal government size and eliminate operational inefficiencies and wastage. Since its inception, this cost-reduction department has proposed dismissing over 200,000 federal employees. (AP Photo)
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